Daily

Column

Important dates: (blue dashed lines) delineating mask mandate / advice changes for “fully-vaccinated individuals”:

Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

Column

Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.

  • First plot is conservative (10-day total) estimate
  • Second plot is 14-day total used in MN Safe-Learning plan

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

By the Numbers

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Definitions

Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table

Eau Claire

Eau Claire cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
June 01 2021 11599 52744 408 109 30 40
June 02 2021 11600 52734 409 109 24 37
June 03 2021 11600 52741 409 109 19 34
June 04 2021 11608 52739 409 109 27 39
June 05 2021 11608 52766 409 109 24 39
June 06 2021 11608 52792 410 109 17 32
June 07 2021 11608 52808 410 109 15 27
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 0 0.1 13.3% 2 0.02% 5 0.04%
10-19 0 0.4 26.7% 4 0.03% 7 0.05%
20-29 0 0.6 26.7% 4 0.02% 7 0.03%
30-39 0 0.0 6.7% 1 0.01% 3 0.02%
40-49 0 0.1 13.3% 2 0.02% 2 0.02%
50-59 0 0.0 6.7% 1 0.01% 1 0.01%
60-69 0 -0.1 -6.7% -1 -0.01% 0 0%
70+ 0 0.1 13.3% 2 0.02% 2 0.02%
All ages 0 1.3 100% 15 0.01% 27 0.03%

Chippewa

Chippewa cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
June 01 2021 7473 31032 281 94 35 57
June 02 2021 7479 31051 282 94 41 57
June 03 2021 7485 31054 285 94 46 57
June 04 2021 7486 31067 285 94 39 53
June 05 2021 7487 31083 285 94 24 49
June 06 2021 7487 31091 285 94 21 49
June 07 2021 7487 31105 285 94 19 48
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 0 0.1 5.3% 1 0.01% 3 0.04%
10-19 0 0.3 10.5% 2 0.02% 3 0.04%
20-29 0 0.1 5.3% 1 0.01% 10 0.14%
30-39 0 0.1 5.3% 1 0.01% 3 0.04%
40-49 0 0.3 15.8% 3 0.04% 8 0.1%
50-59 0 1.1 42.1% 8 0.08% 15 0.15%
60-69 0 0.3 10.5% 2 0.02% 4 0.05%
70+ 0 0.0 5.3% 1 0.01% 2 0.03%
All ages 0 2.4 100% 19 0.03% 48 0.07%

Barron

Barron cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
June 01 2021 5869 20612 279 82 20 32
June 02 2021 5871 20637 280 83 19 30
June 03 2021 5871 20643 281 83 14 26
June 04 2021 5874 20659 281 83 13 26
June 05 2021 5876 20675 281 83 14 27
June 06 2021 5876 20678 281 83 14 24
June 07 2021 5876 20687 281 83 11 19
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 0 0.1 9.1% 1 0.02% 1 0.02%
10-19 0 0.1 9.1% 1 0.02% 4 0.07%
20-29 0 -0.1 -9.1% -1 -0.02% 1 0.02%
30-39 0 0.0 9.1% 1 0.02% 1 0.02%
40-49 0 0.1 9.1% 1 0.02% 2 0.04%
50-59 0 0.4 27.3% 3 0.04% 4 0.06%
60-69 0 0.3 18.2% 2 0.03% 3 0.05%
70+ 0 0.1 27.3% 3 0.05% 3 0.05%
All ages 0 1.1 100% 11 0.02% 19 0.04%

La Crosse

La Crosse cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
June 01 2021 12809 59593 437 87 12 27
June 02 2021 12792 59644 437 88 9 27
June 03 2021 12779 59634 438 88 8 13
June 04 2021 12766 59651 440 88 8 12
June 05 2021 12767 59674 440 88 4 13
June 06 2021 12768 59681 440 88 4 11
June 07 2021 12768 59715 441 88 4 10
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 0 -0.6 9.8% -4 -0.03% -4 -0.03%
10-19 0 -0.7 12.2% -5 -0.03% -1 -0.01%
20-29 0 -1.7 29.3% -12 -0.06% -19 -0.09%
30-39 0 -0.3 4.9% -2 -0.01% -2 -0.01%
40-49 0 -1.1 19.5% -8 -0.06% -6 -0.04%
50-59 0 -0.6 7.3% -3 -0.02% -4 -0.03%
60-69 0 -0.4 7.3% -3 -0.02% -2 -0.01%
70+ 0 -0.4 9.8% -4 -0.03% -4 -0.03%
All ages 0 -5.9 100% -41 -0.03% -42 -0.04%

Dane

Dane cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
June 01 2021 45052 354401 1527 310 136 257
June 02 2021 45060 354561 1530 310 123 240
June 03 2021 45078 354602 1532 310 130 221
June 04 2021 45088 354875 1534 310 128 196
June 05 2021 45092 355136 1538 310 113 176
June 06 2021 45097 355406 1540 310 102 160
June 07 2021 45104 355619 1537 310 96 156
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 0 0.9 11.5% 11 0.02% 16 0.03%
10-19 2 1.1 14.6% 14 0.02% 24 0.03%
20-29 2 2.4 33.3% 32 0.03% 50 0.05%
30-39 0 0.9 9.4% 9 0.01% 20 0.03%
40-49 2 0.7 11.5% 11 0.02% 16 0.02%
50-59 0 0.6 6.2% 6 0.01% 12 0.02%
60-69 0 0.9 8.3% 8 0.01% 12 0.02%
70+ 1 0.7 5.2% 5 0.01% 6 0.01%
All ages 7 8.1 100% 96 0.02% 156 0.03%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
June 01 2021 610224 2946952 31073 7094 1939 3469
June 02 2021 610400 2948710 31150 7110 1968 3262
June 03 2021 610565 2948845 31202 7129 1982 2979
June 04 2021 610740 2950535 31261 7150 1781 2748
June 05 2021 610884 2952273 31304 7160 1595 2599
June 06 2021 610934 2954165 31327 7160 1373 2502
June 07 2021 611000 2955739 31352 7161 1213 2417
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 3 10.7 8.2% 99 0.02% 184 0.03%
10-19 13 16.9 14.8% 180 0.02% 367 0.05%
20-29 10 20.3 17.2% 209 0.03% 419 0.06%
30-39 11 20.1 15.9% 193 0.03% 401 0.05%
40-49 5 12.9 12.5% 152 0.02% 314 0.04%
50-59 7 16.9 14% 170 0.02% 339 0.04%
60-69 8 11.0 8.8% 107 0.01% 209 0.03%
70+ 9 10.4 8.5% 103 0.02% 184 0.03%
All ages 66 119.1 100% 1213 0.02% 2417 0.04%

Column

Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.

Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):

  • 2wk: Two-week case total (most recent 14 days), rate per 10K of county population
  • 2wk10s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 10-19 population
  • 2wk20s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 20-29 population; since over 50% of students on campus are in early 20s
  • daily7: Daily new-case running average (average over 7 days)
  • posratedaily7 (as a percent): Daily positive-test rate, running average (average over 7 days)

and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:

Criteria 2wk Criteria 2wk20s Criteria daily7 Suggestion
> 25 > 30 urge extra caution
> 28 > 45* decreasing consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH
> 28 > 45* steady to increasing strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH.
> 30 > 50 decreasing ’’ ’’ ’’
> 30 > 50 steady to increasing based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable

*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.

Eau Claire

Eau Claire 2wk Eau Claire 2wk10s Eau Claire 2wk20s Eau Claire current daily7 Eau Claire past daily7 Eau Claire posratedaily7
2.6 5.1 3.3 1.3 3.6 10.7%

Important Resources:

Chippewa

Chippewa 2wk Chippewa current daily7 Chippewa past daily7 Chippewa posratedaily7
7.4 2.4 5.4 19.3%

Barron

Barron 2wk Barron current daily7 Barron past daily7 Barron posratedaily7
4.2 1.1 2.4 9.8%

La Crosse

La Crosse 2wk La Crosse 2wk10s La Crosse 2wk20s La Crosse current daily7 La Crosse past daily7 La Crosse posratedaily7
-3.6 -0.6 -8.9 0.4 1.6 -41.4%

Dane

Dane 2wk Dane 2wk10s Dane 2wk20s Dane current daily7 Dane past daily7 Dane posratedaily7
2.9 3.4 4.8 8.1 19.7 3.9%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin 2wk Wisconsin 2wk10s Wisconsin 2wk20s Wisconsin current daily7 Wisconsin past daily7 Wisconsin posratedaily7
4.2 4.8 5.5 119.1 282.1 7.7%

Important Resources:

Cumulative

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Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

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Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

References

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Reliable Updated Visuals

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Modeling

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Predicting cumulative deaths in state

  • WI correpondence between Cumulative cases and deaths (at time lag)
    • Starting with late May, after daily tests regularly above 6000
[1] "The number of  cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 0.8 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.68 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-06-28 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 6384"

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Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges

  • Portage county (Stevens Point): gray
  • Eau Claire county (Eau Claire): blue
  • Dane county (Madison): green
  • La Crosse county (La Crosse): red