Important dates: (blue dashed lines) delineating mask mandate / advice changes for “fully-vaccinated individuals”:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Various 7-day average trends
Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 01 2021 | 11599 | 52744 | 408 | 109 | 30 | 40 |
| June 02 2021 | 11600 | 52734 | 409 | 109 | 24 | 37 |
| June 03 2021 | 11600 | 52741 | 409 | 109 | 19 | 34 |
| June 04 2021 | 11608 | 52739 | 409 | 109 | 27 | 39 |
| June 05 2021 | 11608 | 52766 | 409 | 109 | 24 | 39 |
| June 06 2021 | 11608 | 52792 | 410 | 109 | 17 | 32 |
| June 07 2021 | 11608 | 52808 | 410 | 109 | 15 | 27 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.1 | 13.3% | 2 | 0.02% | 5 | 0.04% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 0.4 | 26.7% | 4 | 0.03% | 7 | 0.05% |
| 20-29 | 0 | 0.6 | 26.7% | 4 | 0.02% | 7 | 0.03% |
| 30-39 | 0 | 0.0 | 6.7% | 1 | 0.01% | 3 | 0.02% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 0.1 | 13.3% | 2 | 0.02% | 2 | 0.02% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 0.0 | 6.7% | 1 | 0.01% | 1 | 0.01% |
| 60-69 | 0 | -0.1 | -6.7% | -1 | -0.01% | 0 | 0% |
| 70+ | 0 | 0.1 | 13.3% | 2 | 0.02% | 2 | 0.02% |
| All ages | 0 | 1.3 | 100% | 15 | 0.01% | 27 | 0.03% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 01 2021 | 7473 | 31032 | 281 | 94 | 35 | 57 |
| June 02 2021 | 7479 | 31051 | 282 | 94 | 41 | 57 |
| June 03 2021 | 7485 | 31054 | 285 | 94 | 46 | 57 |
| June 04 2021 | 7486 | 31067 | 285 | 94 | 39 | 53 |
| June 05 2021 | 7487 | 31083 | 285 | 94 | 24 | 49 |
| June 06 2021 | 7487 | 31091 | 285 | 94 | 21 | 49 |
| June 07 2021 | 7487 | 31105 | 285 | 94 | 19 | 48 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.1 | 5.3% | 1 | 0.01% | 3 | 0.04% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 0.3 | 10.5% | 2 | 0.02% | 3 | 0.04% |
| 20-29 | 0 | 0.1 | 5.3% | 1 | 0.01% | 10 | 0.14% |
| 30-39 | 0 | 0.1 | 5.3% | 1 | 0.01% | 3 | 0.04% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 0.3 | 15.8% | 3 | 0.04% | 8 | 0.1% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 1.1 | 42.1% | 8 | 0.08% | 15 | 0.15% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 0.3 | 10.5% | 2 | 0.02% | 4 | 0.05% |
| 70+ | 0 | 0.0 | 5.3% | 1 | 0.01% | 2 | 0.03% |
| All ages | 0 | 2.4 | 100% | 19 | 0.03% | 48 | 0.07% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 01 2021 | 5869 | 20612 | 279 | 82 | 20 | 32 |
| June 02 2021 | 5871 | 20637 | 280 | 83 | 19 | 30 |
| June 03 2021 | 5871 | 20643 | 281 | 83 | 14 | 26 |
| June 04 2021 | 5874 | 20659 | 281 | 83 | 13 | 26 |
| June 05 2021 | 5876 | 20675 | 281 | 83 | 14 | 27 |
| June 06 2021 | 5876 | 20678 | 281 | 83 | 14 | 24 |
| June 07 2021 | 5876 | 20687 | 281 | 83 | 11 | 19 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.1 | 9.1% | 1 | 0.02% | 1 | 0.02% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 0.1 | 9.1% | 1 | 0.02% | 4 | 0.07% |
| 20-29 | 0 | -0.1 | -9.1% | -1 | -0.02% | 1 | 0.02% |
| 30-39 | 0 | 0.0 | 9.1% | 1 | 0.02% | 1 | 0.02% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 0.1 | 9.1% | 1 | 0.02% | 2 | 0.04% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 0.4 | 27.3% | 3 | 0.04% | 4 | 0.06% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 0.3 | 18.2% | 2 | 0.03% | 3 | 0.05% |
| 70+ | 0 | 0.1 | 27.3% | 3 | 0.05% | 3 | 0.05% |
| All ages | 0 | 1.1 | 100% | 11 | 0.02% | 19 | 0.04% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 01 2021 | 12809 | 59593 | 437 | 87 | 12 | 27 |
| June 02 2021 | 12792 | 59644 | 437 | 88 | 9 | 27 |
| June 03 2021 | 12779 | 59634 | 438 | 88 | 8 | 13 |
| June 04 2021 | 12766 | 59651 | 440 | 88 | 8 | 12 |
| June 05 2021 | 12767 | 59674 | 440 | 88 | 4 | 13 |
| June 06 2021 | 12768 | 59681 | 440 | 88 | 4 | 11 |
| June 07 2021 | 12768 | 59715 | 441 | 88 | 4 | 10 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | -0.6 | 9.8% | -4 | -0.03% | -4 | -0.03% |
| 10-19 | 0 | -0.7 | 12.2% | -5 | -0.03% | -1 | -0.01% |
| 20-29 | 0 | -1.7 | 29.3% | -12 | -0.06% | -19 | -0.09% |
| 30-39 | 0 | -0.3 | 4.9% | -2 | -0.01% | -2 | -0.01% |
| 40-49 | 0 | -1.1 | 19.5% | -8 | -0.06% | -6 | -0.04% |
| 50-59 | 0 | -0.6 | 7.3% | -3 | -0.02% | -4 | -0.03% |
| 60-69 | 0 | -0.4 | 7.3% | -3 | -0.02% | -2 | -0.01% |
| 70+ | 0 | -0.4 | 9.8% | -4 | -0.03% | -4 | -0.03% |
| All ages | 0 | -5.9 | 100% | -41 | -0.03% | -42 | -0.04% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 01 2021 | 45052 | 354401 | 1527 | 310 | 136 | 257 |
| June 02 2021 | 45060 | 354561 | 1530 | 310 | 123 | 240 |
| June 03 2021 | 45078 | 354602 | 1532 | 310 | 130 | 221 |
| June 04 2021 | 45088 | 354875 | 1534 | 310 | 128 | 196 |
| June 05 2021 | 45092 | 355136 | 1538 | 310 | 113 | 176 |
| June 06 2021 | 45097 | 355406 | 1540 | 310 | 102 | 160 |
| June 07 2021 | 45104 | 355619 | 1537 | 310 | 96 | 156 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.9 | 11.5% | 11 | 0.02% | 16 | 0.03% |
| 10-19 | 2 | 1.1 | 14.6% | 14 | 0.02% | 24 | 0.03% |
| 20-29 | 2 | 2.4 | 33.3% | 32 | 0.03% | 50 | 0.05% |
| 30-39 | 0 | 0.9 | 9.4% | 9 | 0.01% | 20 | 0.03% |
| 40-49 | 2 | 0.7 | 11.5% | 11 | 0.02% | 16 | 0.02% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 0.6 | 6.2% | 6 | 0.01% | 12 | 0.02% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 0.9 | 8.3% | 8 | 0.01% | 12 | 0.02% |
| 70+ | 1 | 0.7 | 5.2% | 5 | 0.01% | 6 | 0.01% |
| All ages | 7 | 8.1 | 100% | 96 | 0.02% | 156 | 0.03% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 01 2021 | 610224 | 2946952 | 31073 | 7094 | 1939 | 3469 |
| June 02 2021 | 610400 | 2948710 | 31150 | 7110 | 1968 | 3262 |
| June 03 2021 | 610565 | 2948845 | 31202 | 7129 | 1982 | 2979 |
| June 04 2021 | 610740 | 2950535 | 31261 | 7150 | 1781 | 2748 |
| June 05 2021 | 610884 | 2952273 | 31304 | 7160 | 1595 | 2599 |
| June 06 2021 | 610934 | 2954165 | 31327 | 7160 | 1373 | 2502 |
| June 07 2021 | 611000 | 2955739 | 31352 | 7161 | 1213 | 2417 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 3 | 10.7 | 8.2% | 99 | 0.02% | 184 | 0.03% |
| 10-19 | 13 | 16.9 | 14.8% | 180 | 0.02% | 367 | 0.05% |
| 20-29 | 10 | 20.3 | 17.2% | 209 | 0.03% | 419 | 0.06% |
| 30-39 | 11 | 20.1 | 15.9% | 193 | 0.03% | 401 | 0.05% |
| 40-49 | 5 | 12.9 | 12.5% | 152 | 0.02% | 314 | 0.04% |
| 50-59 | 7 | 16.9 | 14% | 170 | 0.02% | 339 | 0.04% |
| 60-69 | 8 | 11.0 | 8.8% | 107 | 0.01% | 209 | 0.03% |
| 70+ | 9 | 10.4 | 8.5% | 103 | 0.02% | 184 | 0.03% |
| All ages | 66 | 119.1 | 100% | 1213 | 0.02% | 2417 | 0.04% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.6 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 3.6 | 10.7% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7.4 | 2.4 | 5.4 | 19.3% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.2 | 1.1 | 2.4 | 9.8% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3.6 | -0.6 | -8.9 | 0.4 | 1.6 | -41.4% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.9 | 3.4 | 4.8 | 8.1 | 19.7 | 3.9% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.2 | 4.8 | 5.5 | 119.1 | 282.1 | 7.7% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 0.8 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.68 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-06-28 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 6384"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges